Wednesday, March 27, 2024

THE MANAGEMENT OF PARLIAMENT - ASSEMBLY ELECTION CAMPAIGNS - RESEARCH PAPERS

 


https://www.proquest.com/docview/1765957646?sourcetype=Scholarly%20Journals



COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE POLITICAL MANAGEMENT DIMENSIONS OF LOCAL ELECTION CAMPAIGNS

Kos, Domen.  Journal of Comparative Politics; Ljubljana Vol. 9, Iss. 1,  (Jan 2016): 75-87.


Ware (1996) presents four basic types of interaction between the transmitter and the recipient in the context of communication as a central process in all election campaigns: intensive direct contacts (discussion in a circle of acquaintances); non-intensive methods of direct approach (discussion in the context of an election campaign in the field); impersonal interaction (printed advertisements of the election campaign and print media); and indirect interaction (electronic media and radio).

 Communication at the beginning of the campaign.



Whiteley and Seyd (2002) present numerous other factors of an election campaign, such as geographic location, closeness to the electoral competition, organization of local political parties, and the calibre and motivation of the candidate. The following factors are of special importance when taking into account the candidate: personality, the ability to communicate well, leadership skills, professional competence, appearance, and personality traits (Vreg 2004). To this we must also add political skills and background and we must not forget the interest in acting for the social good (Krasovec 2007). Special attention is given to the dilemma of electability of party  and independent  candidates and ballots on a local level (Gilbert 1962). 

Whiteley and Seyd (2002) also systemised the process of preparing and executing an election campaign from two different points of view; from the point of view of time, where they present a long-term or permanent election campaign (Mann and Ornstein 2000), a medium-term election campaign, and a short-term election campaign; and from the point of view of organization, where they deal with an election campaign that is centrally organized, centrally coordinated, and locally organized, with the latter supposedly being the most efficient (Clark 2012).

An important part of election campaigns on a local level is their starting point. Here we are talking about the potential advantages and disadvantages, brought about by candidacy from the position of the incumbent or candidacy from the position of the challenger. 

The advantage of incumbents is mostly the availability of financial and staff resources, with which they solve problems of the local community and, with it, maintain their recognition and popularity. Financial and staff resources also help them with the use of more sophisticated methods of communication (access to new technology and media) (Strachan 2003; Moncrieftand Squire 2005). Disadvantages of candidacy from the position of the incumbent are mostly seen in possible past decisions, which may be exploited for the purpose of a negative election campaign. Often the voters blame current political representatives for all the problems of a certain environment, even when it was beyond the power of the candidate to change them. A disadvantage is also the time constraint of the candidate, running from the position of the incumbent, because he must take care of the activities connected to his function and the activities of the election campaign - or at least give such an appearance. The candidates who candidate from the position of the incumbent are also subject to greater control and expectation from the side of the media (Trent et al. 2011).

We should not neglect the intensity of election campaigns, which depends on numerous factors, most of all on the candidate's characteristics (especially vulnerability of the candidate who candidates from the position of the incumbent), the political environment, and the invested resources (Sulkin 2001). A case of local election campaigns in Canada showed that the possibility of relative predictions about the election results brings significantly less intensive election campaigns (Carty and Eagles 2000). Here we must add that in less competitive environments more traditional methods of election campaigns are used, while competitive environments demand the use of more sophisticated methods, which require more resources (Strachan 2003). Also important are the trends that significantly affect election campaigns on a local level, for example the perception of the economic situation, the popularity of the president, etcetera. The local level does not occur in a vacuum (Whiteley and Seyd 2002; Burton and Shea 2010). In the context of political environment Carty and Eagles (2000) warn about the importance of socio-demographic factors (for example urban or rural environment, number of inhabitants, and others).

An important factor in all election campaigns is the staffing of the performers of election campaigns, seen through the process of the aforementioned professionalization of election campaigns. The execution of an election campaign can be done within a party or individually; semi-professionally, with political parties at the centre, in cooperation with outsourcers; and professionally, characterised by equal role of political parties and outsourcers. The costs of political campaigns are also associated with this. According to multiple studies, the costs have lately drastically increased because of the professionalization of election campaigns. Consequently, this brings advantages to the candidates with a better financial starting point (Strachan 2003; Hetherington and Keefe 2007; Panagopoulos and Wielhouwer 2008). Besides the already mentioned financial resources, which play an extremely significant part in election campaigns of larger countries (as an example Wilcox (2005) stresses the election campaigns in the United States of America), staff resources are especially important. Next to the aforesaid candidates and professionals for election campaigns, staff resources comprise mostly of all the participants in an election campaign. Here we can find members of local parties, volunteers, family members, friends, and other supporters, as well as various groups and organizations in the local environment. It is vital that all the participants are educated (party professionalised) in the execution of election campaigns; otherwise their contribution is meagre. Mere numerousness does not ensure effectiveness in the context of local election campaigns (Deutchman 1966; Christensen and Hogen-Esch 2006).

 Kustec Lipicer (2010) talks about public policy contents as a piece of the mosaic of election campaigns and a factor in the framework of election campaigns. With the goal of avoiding the banality of the contents of political campaigns, she focuses on exploring various politically ideological points of view and concrete public policy contents, offered by all the involved groups of an election campaign. In a local environment the latter could, for example, be depicted with the regulation of the local infrastructure, which is often identified in local contents of an election campaign.

All of the above is connected together by the strategy of an election campaign or the planning of an election campaign, which is, according to some authors, the most important element of political management of election campaigns; it divides responsibility, integrates work, and predicts the basic phases of an election campaign. The strategy also directs the manner of political communication and is perceived as basic knowledge of all political managers or consultants (Napolitan 1972). For example, the advertisements for an election campaign usually present the candidate's capability, personality, and ideas for the future. That can be characterized as a positive election campaign. 

Negative election campaign transforms campaigning almost into a real sport spectacle, which is on the one hand interesting for undecided voters, but on the other negative campaign tends to deter interest in politics (Ansolabehere and Iyengar 1995). Besides that, there are other mixed approaches between positive and negative campaign (Faucheux 1998). According to the strategic political communication of election campaigns, campaign theme and message must also be developed. It presents to voters a choice based on clear, simplified, believable and real candidate differences (Faucheux 1998). The strategy of an election campaign also defines the orientation of an election campaign, which can be oriented towards the party, towards the candidate or towards the candidate with the support of different interest groups and organizations (Herrnson 2005). An important strategic moment is unquestionably the pre-election integration of various parties, as well as various candidates, which is a relatively common and known occurrence in Europe (Gonder 2006). In hopes of winning the elections and later gaining power to rule and control the acceptance and implementation of local politics, different types of coalitions are formed in some local communities in the period before the elections (Hacek et al. 2008). 

The importance of using research tools for the preparation of strategies, necessary for locating, collecting, and organising information, is increasing during the time of sophisticated election campaigns.


Tuesday, March 26, 2024

Management of Election Campaigns




Most of the political parties content in elections and they are organized for contesting in elections. Elections are the key feature of a democracy.

Parties have to make efforts to understand the election mechanism of the country and the mechanics of participating in the elections.


2024
My Message to Party Members and Leaders

Give replies to emails with a message to vote for your party.  
Keep social media accounts active and current. 
Do door to door personal canvassing. 
Last day reminder and persuasion to vote most important. Create booth level teams for it.



Advance Preparation of Bharatiya Janata Party for 2019 Lok Sabha Elections

29 April 2017
BJP President Amit Shah gave a call for 15 days full time work at booth level in each of the 543 Lok Sabha constituencies. He got 3,50,000 responses. Within that around 4000 people offered to work for 6 months to one year.  Within that the party identified 600 full time workers who will work full time till the counting is over in the elections. Amit Shah himself has volunteered to work for 15 days in booth level work. In addition till, September, which is the birth month of Pandit Deendayal Upadhyay, Shah has agreed to undertake a nation wide tour of 95 days.

The party has come out with six programmes, one for every two months for party's ideological and organization strenthening. The party is segregating its 10 crore membership into booth wise units. The party has recently started 19 new departments to manage its work.


Related  Material

THE MANAGEMENT OF PARLIAMENT - ASSEMBLY ELECTION CAMPAIGNS - RESEARCH PAPERS


How Technology Is (and Isn’t) Transforming Election Campaigns in India
SHAHANA SHEIKH
MARCH 07, 2024
ARTICLE

 
Article  PDF Available
To Spin or not to Spin, that is the Question: The Emergence of Modern Political Marketing
March 2001, The Marketing Review 2(1):35-53
Author: Phil Harris, University of Chester
 

Political Party Campaign Management CRM Solutions
http://leadnxt.com/crm-solutions-for-political-party-campaign-management.html

The Management of Election Campaigns
Robert Agranoff
Holbrook Press, 1976 - Political Science - 481 pages






Updated 27.3.2024,  29 April 2017
Pub in the blog. 11 July 2012

Original URL: Knol - 2utb2lsm2k7a/680

Last edited: 04 Jan 2009

Exported: 26 Nov 2011

Saturday, March 9, 2024

Management of Political Party in Democratic States (Countries)





Articles on the Theme


Democracy and Political Parties

Marketing or Understanding the Needs and Desires of People

Formation of a Political party

Constitution of a Political Party

Membership

Enrolling and Developing Members

Activities of Members

Party Organization

Financial Management of the Party

     Campaign Financing Through Crowd Funding

Mass Contact Programmes

Manifesto of the Party

Views of the Party on Legislative and Administrative Issues

Elections

Election Manifesto

Selection of constituencies and Candidates

Management of Election Campaigns

Election Canvassing

Voter Mobilization

Training of Legislators

Training of Administrative Team (Government) of the Party

Separation of Government and Party Affairs when in Power

Information Technology for Political Party Management

Management of Coalition Politilcs

Disciplining the Members

Mass Meetings

Protest Movements

Social Infrastructure Development

Cyber Political Parties

2024 Lok Sabha Elections in India


Now Compiling News related 2024 Lok Sabha Elections in India in two blog articles.

2024 Lok Sabha Election Activities of BJP and NDA.


2024 Lok Sabha Election Activities of INDIA Bloc - Congress, SP, TMC, RLD, NCP, Shiv Sena, AAP, DMK, Left Parties and Others.


References


POLITICAL PARTIES MANAGEMENT
SATISHCHANDER YADAV
Lulu.com
https://books.google.co.in/books?id=BYKwBgAAQBAJ


Promoting Credible Elections & Democratic Governance in Africa
http://www.eisa.org.za/EISA/pp.htm



Modern Political Party Management - What Can Be Learned from International Practices?
Catrina Schläger and Judith Christ (Eds.), 2014
Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung
Shanghai Coordination Office for International Cooperation
7A Da An Plaza East Tower, 829 Yan An Zhong Road
Shanghai
Tel: +86-21-6247-2529 Zip Code: 200040
http://www.fes-china.org

A Guide to Political Party Development
National Democratic Institute for International Affairs (NDI) 2008
2030 M Street, NW • Floor 5
Washington, DC 20036


Best Practices of Effective Parties: Three training modules for political parties
Erica Breth and Julian Quibell, eds.
National Democratic Institute for International Affairs (NDI) 2003
2030 M Street, NW • Floor 5
Washington, DC 20036





Updated now: 10.3.2024,  29 April 2017,  5 Jan 2014
Edited on this blog: 11 July 2012


Original URL: http://knol.google.com/k/-/-/2utb2lsm2k7a/668
Last edited on Knol: 11 Jan 2009
Edited on this blog: 11 July 2012

Political Party Management - Knols

Updated 10.3.2024
Pub 28 April 2012 Political Party Management - Knols

Political Party Management - Knols

Knols by KVSSNRao

Authors

Collected Knols

    Monday, September 11, 2023

    MARKOWITZ PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS: APPLICATION AND EVALUATION IN INDIAN STOCK MARKET

    12.9.2023 Update

    Came across a related paper

    Kim, Jang Ho; Kim, Woo Chang; Lee, Yongjae; Choi, Bong-Geun; Fabozzi, Frank J. (2023) “Robustness in Portfolio Optimization,” Journal of Portfolio Management, online published.


    Stock Portfolio Analysis Using Markowitz Model
    Indah Nur Safitri  , Sudradjata, Eman Lesmanaa
    Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Padjadjaran University, 
    INDONESIA.
    International Journal of Quantitative Research and Modeling
    Vol. 1, No. 1, pp. 47-58, 2020
    Available online at http://ijqrm.rescollacomm.com/index.php/ijqrm/index
    ---------------------




    16.2.2012

    This paper provides the procedure optimal portfolio development using real life data on equity shares and Markowitz Portfolio Analysis.
    __________________________________________________
    INTRODUCTION
    Harry Markowitz (1952) published the portfolio analysis method in 1952. Using this method, an optimal portfolio can be determined for an investor who can specify his risk level. Expected return and standard deviation of return for each security and correlation coefficient (or covariance) of return for each pair of securities in the set of  securities that are considered for inclusion in the portfolio are required as data inputs for doing the portfolio analysis. Even though the method proposed by Markowitz is a normative method and detailed implementation steps were described by Markowitz (1959) in a book, the implications of the method were better captured in the equilibrium condition for the risky asset market (Harrington, 1983) and its application in portfolio formation and revision was relatively neglected.  It is difficult to find in the published literature an example for the application of the Markowitz portfolio analysis to real life data based on quantitative expectations of investors or analysts.  We may presume that analysts in stock broking companies and mutual funds and other professional investment organizations may be using the analytical method, but still descriptions of its application are not made available for the public at large. In this paper, the optimal portfolio formation using real life data subject to two different constraint sets is attempted. The objective of the research is to provide an example of optimal portfolio development using real life data.
     
    INPUTS REQUIRED FOR PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS
     
    For performing the portfolio analysis using the Markowitz method, we need the expected return for the period of holding for each of the securities to be considered for inclusion in the portfolio. We also require the standard deviation of the return for each security. In addition we have to know the covariance (or correlation coefficient) between each pair of securities among all securities from which we have to form the portfolio.
     
    The model proposed by Markowitz points out to the need for estimating expected returns in quantitative terms. But this line of enquiry (estimating expected returns over a period of time) was not pursued further adequately in the literature. That may be one of the reasons, why papers outlining the application of the model to real life data were in short supply. Analysts were giving their anticipation regarding the performance of various securities in twelve months or one year ahead even in 1920s. But Benjamin Graham (1940), known as Dean of Wall Street, was not in favor of such analysis. This analysis slowly developed into prediction of target prices 12 months ahead for many securities. These target price predictions can be used to determine the expected returns for one year holding period. Using the target price predictions to determine 12-month expected returns and then using these expected returns to form the optimal portfolios is a feasible and rational line of approach. This approach to quantitative investing is proposed and initiated in this paper.
     
    To estimate standard deviations and covariances, past data can be used (Grinold and Kahn, 2004). The historical risk measures of securities are more stable in comparison to historical expected return measures.
     
    RESEARCH ON TARGET PRICES
     
    Research on target prices is of recent origin. Bradshaw (2002) has examined the frequency with which analysts have used target prices to justify their stock recommendations. He reported that in two thirds of the sample reports that were examined by him, analysts used target prices. The target prices were determined using price multiple heuristics, with PEG (price earnings growth ratio) as one of the important rule for specifying the price-earning (P/E) multiple.
     
    Asquith et al. (2004) have examined the performance of target prices set by analysts of All-American Analyst award winners for the period 1997-99. They examined whether the price of the security crossed its target price within 12 months after the recommendation.  When this definition of accuracy was used, the authors have found that 54% of the price targets were achieved or exceeded. Even in the case of remaining 46% of the securities or recommendations, on average 84% of the price target was found to be achieved. This performance is very creditable. But we have to notice that these price targets were targets of award winners, where the award itself was based on their performance. So, to generalize the findings, we require studies of more representative samples.   
     
    Bradshaw and Brown (2005) have examined the accuracy of 12-months-ahead target price forecasts over the period 1997-2002. They reported that on an average 24 to 45 percent of forecasts were met. Analysts have shown more skill in forecasting company earnings compared to forecasting target prices. This study generated interest in study of success rate of target price forecasts.
     
    Gleason et al. (2006) have examined the performance of target prices over the period 1997-2003. According to this study, the buy recommendations have an average target return of 28 percent. They analyzed results over quintiles.  In the most accurate quintile, 57% of the targets were achieved or exceeded within the 12 month period. In the least accurate quintile, the success rate was found to be 49%.  The interesting finding of the study is that the return that would have been earned by selling each of the securities with buy recommendations at their maximum prices within the 12 months is 42.49% even in the case of lowest quintile.  One needs to compare this 42.49% with average target return of 28%. These studies do provide evidence that target price estimates have utility to investors for their decision making. They also provide the evidence that investors, traders and fund managers are encouraging analysts to provide target prices and many analysts are providing them.
    USE OF TARGET PRICES IN PORTFOLIO FORMATION
     
    If target prices have information content that is useful to earn return over 12-month horizon, portfolios can be formed using the target prices as the basis. The expected return can be determined as the difference between the target price and the current market price on the date of portfolio analysis and this can be expressed as percentage of current market price on the date of portfolio formation. If the investor/trader has this information with him, an optimal portfolio can be specified for him using Markowitz portfolio analysis.
     
    APPLICATION OF MARKOWITZ PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS IN PRACTICE
     
    Markowitz portfolio analysis gives as output an efficient frontier on which each portfolio is the highest return earning portfolio for a specified level of risk. It basically calculates the standard deviation and return for each of the feasible portfolios and identifies the efficient frontier, the boundary of the feasible portfolios of increasing returns. The financial planners help the investors/traders to arrive at the risk level that they can assume. If the investor/trader specifies his risk level in terms of standard deviation of the portfolio return, the appropriate portfolio for him can be identified using the efficient frontier. Hence the final portfolio selection for an investor/trader requires the combination of portfolio analysis and financial planning.
         
    APPLICATION OF MARKOWITZ PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS IN INDIAN STOCK MARKET
     
    Sources of Data: Valueline is a monthly bulletin published by Sharekhan (2005) a broking firm in India. The bulletin contains the target price information and the market price on the date of publication for various stocks researched and recommended by the firm. The data from the bulletin of July 2005, which was made available on the website of the firm for public access, is selected for getting the data of expected returns. Target price data was available for 43 companies. Covariance is to be calculated using 25 months closing price data. The monthly closing price data was taken from Prowess, an electronic data base of balance sheet and share price data of Indian companies published by Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE, Mumbai). Out of the total 43 companies, for two companies, data was not available for the full 25 months. These two companies were dropped from the set of securities considered for forming the portfolio.  Hence, the final list of stocks considered for portfolio analysis contains 41 companies.
     
    Calculation of Input Variables: The expected returns were calculated as the difference between target price and current market price of each security, expressed as a percentage of current market price. Monthly returns, required to determine the covariances, were calculated for each company from the monthly closing prices. The covariance matrix for the 41 stocks was calculated using excel covariance function. The monthly covariance between each pair of securities was converted into annual covariance by multiplying it with 12. The input data of expected returns and covariance matrix were thus made ready for the next step in the analysis.
     
    Portfolio Analysis: The software used is the excel optimizer by Markowitz and Todd (2000) described in the book ‘Mean Variance Analysis and Portfolio Choice’. The software was supplied by Todd on request by the author. The software can handle up to 256 securities.
     
    The software requires as input the expected returns of each security, covariance matrix for the set of securities from which the portfolio is to be formed, lower and upper bounds for the proportion of each security in the portfolio and additional constraints if any.
     
    In the first alternative, the portfolio analysis was done with lower and upper boundary for investment in a single security as zero (zero percent) and one (100 percent) respectively. The additional constraint specified is that the sum of the proportions of all securities has to be one or 100%, the amount available for investment. In the second alternative, the analysis was done with the constraint for individual security holding for mutual funds in India, which is a maximum of 10% of the portfolio in a single security. In this case, the lower and upper bounds are 0 and 0.1. The constraint that the sum of all proportions add to 1 or 100% remains. The results are reported in Tables 1 to 4.
     
    RESULTS AND FINDINGS
     
    The 12 month target prices and current market price on 30th June 2005 for the companies included in the set considered for analysis are shown in Table 1. The expected returns for the following 12 months determined from them are shown in column 5 of the Table 1. The covariance matrix for the set of securities is shown in Table 4.

    The output of the portfolio analysis for alternative 1, lower bound zero and upper bound 1 for each security, is shown in Table 2. Corner portfolios describe the efficient frontier. Between any two adjacent corner portfolios, the efficient frontier is a straight line, a weighted average of the two corner portfolios. The analysis returned 23 corner portfolios. The minimum return portfolio has an expected return of 13.54% and standard deviation of 14.35%. The maximum return portfolio has an expected return of 95.96% and standard deviation of 36.12%.

    Investor has to decide the risk level (standard deviation) he wants to bear to select the optimal portfolio from this efficient frontier. This action involves consultation with financial planners. For illustration, if the investor chooses a risk level of 20.27%, the corner portfolio number ‘9’ becomes the optimal portfolio. The expected return of this portfolio is 55.98%. The portfolio is a combination of 9 shares. The proportion or percentage recommended for investment in various securities being:

    1. X(2) =     3%
    2. X(3) =   13%
    3. X(9) =   30%
    4 X(14) =   3%
    5. X(16) = 35%
    6. X(17) =  4%
    7. X(34) =  9%
    8. X(38) =  2%
    9. X(40) =  1%

    The total adds up to 100%.  The names of companies represented by identifiers X(2), X(3) etc. can be read from Table 1.

    In Table 3 are shown the results of portfolio analysis when restrictions on investment imposed on mutual fund portfolios in India are specified in the constraints. The restriction is that upper bound, the proportion invested in any single company’s equity shares, is to be less than 10% of the NAV of the scheme. Accordingly lower bound is specified as zero and upper bound is specified as 0.10. 52 corner portfolios form the efficient frontier in this alternative. The minimum return portfolio has an expected return of 14.02% and standard deviation of 15.59%. The maximum return portfolio has an expected return of 50.64% and standard deviation of 29.35%. It is interesting to compare risk-return characteristics of the maximum return portfolio of alternative 2 with the portfolio selected as an illustration in alternative 1 (55.98% and 20.27%). The expected return is more and standard deviation is lower in the latter case. Thus the constraints imposed through regulation on mutual fund investment are generating an inferior or suboptimal portfolio in this case.

    The performance of these two portfolios is compared over one year period from July 05 to June 2006. The mutual fund portfolio (Exp. Ret: 50.64% and Risk: 29.35%) shows a return of 58.4% with 23.13% standard deviation. The other portfolio (Exp. Ret: 55.98% and Risk 20.27%) shows a return of 21.25% with a standard deviation of 21%. As the returns are expected to be more unstable and risk measures are expected to be relatively more stable, the observed performance can be rationalized in such a simple comparison of performance of the two portfolios over one period. Empirical studies to evaluate the superiority of one-year horizon optimal portfolios formed using quantitative methods have to use number of one year periods in the sample.

    CONCLUSION AND FUTURE SCOPE FOR RESEARCH

    Markowitz’s portfolio analysis can be operationalized and applied to real life portfolio decisions. The 12-month ahead target prices being published for various securities by security analysts can be used as the input for determining expected returns over the next 12 months. The optimal portfolios generated by the portfolio analysis represent the optimal policy for the investor who wants to use the target price estimates rationally.

    Acceptance of the methodology for developing and revising portfolios based on target prices provides scope for further research into improving the estimates of the inputs used for portfolio analysis. Also research is to be done to evaluate the performance of the optimal portfolios, in comparison to portfolios formed without using quantitative portfolio analysis models, over a long period of time.

    Review of literature reveals that research into the utility of target prices is initiated. Research needs to be extended to find out which target price finding methods are working better. Regarding covariance estimates, Grinold and Kahn (2004) have mentioned that there is possibility of estimation errors in case historical data over a lower number of monthly periods in comparison to number of securities considered for portfolio analysis are used. They suggest structural models. Researchers have to come out with useful models which investors can use on the basis of published data.

    Regarding the software for portfolio analysis, the Todd’s program can handle 256 companies. In any particular country, brokers do not normally come out with more than 256 buy recommendations at any point in time. Hence, the software program may not be a limitation. But certainly there will be scope to improve the software, as more and more investors use the methodology, and thereby need efficient and easy to use software with more facilities to come out with various measurements.


    REFERENCES


    Ascquith, Paul, Mikhail, Michael B., and Au, Andrea S. “Information Content of Equity Analyst Reports.”  MIT Sloan Working Paper 4264-02, 2004.
     
    Bradshaw, Mark T. “The Use of Target Prices to Justify Sell-Side Analysts' Stock Recommendations.” Accounting Horizons, March 2002, Vol. 16, no. 1, pp. 27-41.
     
    Bradshaw, Mark T. and Brown, Lawrence D. “Do Sell-side Analysts Exhibit Differential Target Price Forecasting Ability?” Working Paper, 2005, Available at SSRN_ID926400_code175449.pdf.

    Gleason, Cristy A., Johnson, Bruce W., and Li, Haidan. “The Earnings Forecast Accuracy, Valuation Model Use, and Price Target Performance of Sell Side Equity Analysts.” May, 2006 Available at http://www.nd.edu/~carecob/Paper%20Links/Su'06%20Conf/Gleason%206-06.pdf.
     
    Graham, Benjamin, and Dodd, David.  Security Analysis, 2nd Edition, New York: McGraw-Hill Book Co., 1940.

    Grinold, Richard C., and Kahn, Ronald N. Active Portfolio Management, 2nd Edition, New Delhi: Tata McGraw-Hill Pub. Co., 2004.

    Harrington, Diana R. Modern Portfolio Theory & Capital Asset Pricing Model, Englewood Cliffs: Prentice-Hall Inc.,1983.

    Markowitz, Harry. “Portfolio Selection.” Journal of Finance, March 1952, Vol. 7, no.1, pp. 77-91.

    Markowitz, Harry. Portfolio Selection: Efficient Diversification of Investments, New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1959.

    Markowitz, Harry, and Todd, Peter G. Mean Variance Analysis in Portfolio Choice and Capital Markets, Revised Issue, New Hope: Frank J. Fabozzi Associates, 2000.

    Sharekhan. “Stock Ideas Standing (as on June 30, 2005).” Valueline. July 2005, p.3,  Available at  http://www.sharekhan.com/articles/ValueLine_july2005.pdf.


    _______________________________________________________________________________

    Paper presented in research conference - New York Economic Association 

    Article originally published by me on Knol.

    http://knol.google.com/k/  portfolio-analysis-application-and-evaluation-in-indian-stock-market
    (Knol not available for public access from 1 May 2012)


    Ud. 12.9.2023
    Pub 16.2.2012





         

    Saturday, August 27, 2022

    Theory Z - Type Z Organizations


    Differences between American and Japanese Management Practices

    William Ouchi proposed the concept of theory Z organizations. The concept was developed in his efforts to understand the best practices of Japanese management which can be used in companies of USA. He identified the differences between American and Japanese organizations in some aspects.

    American Organizations Japanese Organizations
    Short-term employment Lifetime employment
    Individual decision making Collective decision making
    Individual responsibility Collective responsibility
    Rapid evaluation & promotion Slow evaluation & promotion
    Explicit control mechanisms Implicit control mechanisms
    Specialized career paths Nonspecialized career paths
    Segmented concern for employee as an employee Holistic concern for employee as a person

    Then he went around interviewing managers of various companies asking them to identify American Companies which are practicing the characteristics identified by Ouchi as Japanese organization practices. But Ouchi had not told the managers that they were Japanese practices. Many managers identified some American companies as following those practices. The companies identified were IBM, Procter and Gamble, Hewlett Packard, Eastman Kodak, and the US Military. These companies are named Theory Z companies by Ouchi. They are companies in USA but follow practices similar to Japanese companies.

    Like Japanese companies, type Z companies tend to encourage long-term employment. They rotate employees around functions. Even though they have modern information and accounting systems, they do not dominate decision making. Explicit and implicit information and issues seem to exist in a state of equilibrium. There is a central set of objectives to which all employees have agreed. The corporation’s philosophy or central set of values preserves the freedom of employees to pursue projects they felt would be fruitful. Organizational life is treated as a life of interdependence. It is team work and individual performance measure in a period has some ambiguity.

    The decision making is collective but the responsibility for decision still resides in the individual. In type Z companies, superiors show broad concern for the welfare of subordinates. At peer level also, there is concern for co-workers. Egalitarianism is a central feature of type Z organizations. In egalitarianism in organizational contexts means that it is believed that each person can apply discretion and can work autonomously without close supervision. The belief is that every person can be trusted. 

    Ouchi proposes that American companies adopt type Z company practices. In stead of trying to imitate Japanese companies which are very far in a different culture, American companies can learn from some other American companies only, to follow some of the Japanese best practices.

    Strategies to Transform the Organization

    Ouchi proposed 12 strategies or steps to transform a typical American company, named as type A company to type Z company.  In order for Theory Z to work, skeptics have to be allowed to exist. These people, who think this would not work, should not be discouraged. By involving these skeptics companies begin to form a space of trust. Trust will occur when both parties understands each others view, and know that both are doing it for the good of the company. When a person feels something is not right, by involving them it shows them that neither side is out to hurt the other. Everyone has to realize that with trust comes openness to say what you feel. Another thing people should have is integrity. You should be able to treat people the way you would like to be treated.

    The second strategy, the company should audit its philosophy. Here the company will try to figure out a way that suggests how the company is behaving with its employee and vice versa. Companies are going to have to find out were the company "is", not were it should be. First the company is going to have to understand its culture by studying decisions made in the past. They will than have to organize a big meeting and ask themselves, what they think worked, failed, and what they thought was inconsistent. The answers to these questions bring out philosophy of the company.  

    The third strategy is management must be able to define desired philosophy and be able to involve company leaders. Here management can not be intimidated by company leaders and the company leader must be willing to hear everything the manager has to say. Company leaders should not discourage his manager from speaking, because when he is intimidated the manager tends to hold back more information. Company leaders must be willing to go into a discussion with an open mind and be able to trust his managers. When both begin to trust each other they are going to make easy decisions because both will be sharing wanted information.

    The fourth strategy is the company will have to create both a structure and incentive in the company. Create a place that whenever somebody is struggling, they can feel assured that his team will pick him up.

    The fifth strategy is the company will have to develop some interpersonal skills. Here management is going to want everyone to improve on their communication skills. They need to encourage managers to listen more and know when to interrupt. First people are have to recognize patterns of interactions when making a decision and solving problems.

    The sixth strategy is the company must be able to test themselves and the system. While implementing Theory Z management is going to begin to question their ability to manage.

    The seventh strategy is to stabilize employment. To stabilize employment companies are going to have to challenge every employee, and be able to give him variation of job to do within the company. Here, when a company is doing badly they do not encourage management to lay off people, but rather reduce their hours. This in return gives companies a low turnover rate that results in less waste in training new people.

    The eighth strategy is how to design a system of slow evaluation and promotion.

    The ninth strategy is to broaden the people’s career paths. In order to retain employees within the organization, let them experience every aspect and every department in the company. When everyone knows what every department is doing, it makes it much easier for the company to pass important information within departments.

    The tenth strategy is how to get this theory Z working into the lower level. In order for you to implement Theory Z at the lower level you have to start from the top. The change must occur with top management and professional employees, before you try to change lower level employees. People who are lower level employee are not going to follow a method that top management does not follow. With lower level employees you have to be very patient with them, because they have installed in their heads that management should never be trusted. Employees in the company feel that the company foremen are sell outs, who work more with management and do not care about employees. Like management, the foreman has to gain his employees’ trust.

    The eleventh strategy is to find areas where employee participation is allowed in decision making. The way you gain lower level trust is through participation in company’s decision making, and give them rewards for their accomplishments. You need to encourage employees to speak and let them know that the company wants the employees to work as a team and not as individuals.

    The final thing is to create a sense of family between everyone.

     

    Theory Z of Maslow

    Maslow is a well known psychologist. He is known for his hierarchy of needs model.
    Maslow's Theory Z , presented in Maslow on Management, presupposes that people, once having reached a level of economic security, strive for a life steeped in values, a work life where the person would be able to create and produce. Maslow's Theory Z and Ouchi's Theory Z are different.

    References

    _________________________________________________________________________________
    Originally posted by me in Knol (Knol 47 of Narayana Rao)



    Ud. 28.8.2022
    Pub. 16.2.2012


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    Wednesday, May 11, 2022

    11 May Knowledge History - Science, Engineering and Management

    868 -  Presently available oldest book with a date printed on it. 11 May 868. Diamond Sutra - A Buddhist Book
    1928 - Radio station WGY started first scheduled TV broadcasts
    1947 - Development of tubeless tyre
    1949 - First Polaroid camera sold for $ 89.95
    1951 - Jay Forrester patented computer core memory
    1960 - FDA approved the contraceptive pill
    1987 - A heart transplant was done along with lungs, and the heart of the recipient was donated to another person.

    Birthdays

    Nobel Prize Winners

    1918 Richard Feynman
             http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/physics/laureates/1965/feynman.html

    1924 Antony Hewish  Physics - Discovery of pulsars
             http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/physics/laureates/1974/hewish-facts.html


    Other Scientists
    1752 Johann Friedrich Blumenbach
    1854 Ottman Mergenthaler
    1871 Frank Schlesinger
    1872 Mary Llewellyn Cooke (Management)
    1881 Theodore von Karman
    1897 George P. Murdock
    1914 Haroun Tazieff
    1946  Robert K. Jarvik - Invented Jarvik - 7, the first artificial heart inplanted inside a human body.

    http://todayinsci.com/5/5_11.htm


    10 May Knowledge History - Science, Engineering and Management

    Knowledge History of the Day - Index for the Year

    11 May - History and Importance of The Day



    Pub 12.5.2014