Forecasting and Management of Technology, 2nd Edition
Alan L. Porter, Scott W. Cunningham, Jerry Banks, A. Thomas Roper, Thomas W. Mason, Frederick A. Rossini
Table of Contents
Acknowledgments xv
1 Introduction 1
1.1 About This Book, 1
1.2 Technology and Society, 2
1.2.1 Social Change, 3
1.2.2 Technological Change, 4
1.3 Management and the Future, 6
1.3.1 Management and Innovation Processes, 7
1.3.2 The Role of Technology Forecasting, 9
1.3.3 The Importance of Technology Forecasting, 10
1.3.4 The Role of Social Forecasting, 12
1.4 Conclusions, 13
References, 13
2 Technology Forecasting 15
2.1 What Is Technology Forecasting?, 15
2.1.1 Models of Technology Growth and Diffusion, 17
2.1.2 Technology Forecasting in Context, 18
2.1.3 What Makes a Forecast Good?, 20
2.1.4 Common Errors in Forecasting Technology, 21
2.2 Methodological Foundations, 23
2.2.1 The Technology Delivery System, 24
2.2.2 Inquiring Systems, 28
2.3 Technology Forecasting Methods, 31
2.3.1 Overview of the Most Frequently Used Forecasting Methods, 33
2.3.2 Method Selection, 37
2.4 Conclusion, 37
References, 38
3 Managing the Forecasting Project 40
3.1 Information Needs of the Forecasting Project, 40
3.1.1 The Technology Manager’s Needs, 42
3.1.2 The Forecast Manager’s Needs, 43
3.1.3 Information about Team Members, 44
3.2 Planning the Technology Forecast, 46
3.3 Team Organization, Management, and Communications, 47
3.3.1 Organizing and Managing the Technology Forecast, 50
3.3.2 Communications, 54
3.3.3 Summary Conclusions about Project Management and Organization, 55
3.4 Success: The Right Information at the Right Time, 56
3.5 Project Scheduling, 57
3.5.1 Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT), 58
3.5.2 Gantt Chart, 60
3.5.3 Project Accountability Chart (PAC), 60
3.5.4 Project Scheduling Software, 61
3.6 Conclusions, 62
References, 62
4 Exploring 65
4.1 Establishing the Context—the TDS, 65
4.1.1 Societal and Institutional Contexts, 66
4.1.2 Technology Context, 67
4.1.3 Stakeholders, 68
4.1.4 Understanding the TDS, 69
4.1.5 An Example TDS Model, 70
4.2 Monitoring, 72
4.2.1 Why Monitor?, 74
4.2.2 Who Should Monitor?, 75
4.2.3 Monitoring Strategy, 76
4.2.4 Monitoring Focused on Management of Technology Issues, 79
4.2.5 Monitoring Focused on the Stage of the Technology Development, 81
4.3 The Stimulation of Creativity, 81
4.3.1 Five Elements of Creativity, 81
4.3.2 Group Creativity, 92
4.4 Conclusion, 95
References, 95
5 Gathering and Using Information 98
5.1 Expert Opinion, 99
5.1.1 Selecting Experts, 99
5.1.2 Selecting Expert Opinion Techniques, 100
5.2 Gathering Information on the Internet, 105
5.2.1 Science and Technology on the Internet, 106
5.2.2 Society and Culture on the Internet, 109
5.3 Structuring the Search, 113
5.4 Preparing Search Results, 116
5.5 Using Search Results, 117
5.6 Developing Science, Technology, and Social Indicators, 119
5.6.1 Science and Technology Indicators, 119
5.6.2 Social Indicators, 122
5.7 Communicating Search Results, 122
5.8 Conclusions, 123
References, 124
6 Analyzing Phase 129
6.1 Perspective on Data and Methods, 129
6.1.1 Overview and Caveats, 130
6.1.2 Internet Time Series Data and Trends, 132
6.1.3 Analytical Modeling, 133
6.2 Linear Regression and Extensions, 134
6.3 Growth Models, 138
6.3.1 The Models, 138
6.3.2 Dealing with the Data, 143
6.3.3 Regression and Growth Modeling: What Can Go Wrong?, 144
6.4 Simulation, 145
6.4.1 Quantitative Cross-Impact Analysis, 146
6.4.2 Qualitative Cross-Impact Analysis, 152
6.5 Monte Carlo Simulation, 153
6.5.1 Generating and Displaying Random Values, 153
6.5.2 Sampling Multiple Random Variables, 154
6.5.3 RFID Application in a Hospital Decision, 156
6.6 System Dynamics, 158
6.6.1 The System Dynamics Modeling Cycle, 159
6.6.2 A Technology Forecasting Example: The Cable-to-the-Curb Model, 162
6.7 Gaming, 164
6.7.1 Decision Trees, 165
6.7.2 Bayesian Estimation, 166
6.7.3 Value of Information, 167
6.7.4 Real Options Analysis, 169
6.8 Software Suggestions, 170
6.8.1 Software for Regression, 170
6.8.2 Simulation Analysis Software, 170
6.8.3 Software for Analysis of Decisions, 170
6.8.4 Real Options Super Lattice Software, 170
6.8.5 Software Sites, 171
References, 171
7 Focusing Phase: Using Scenario Analysis 174
7.1 Uncertainty, 175
7.1.1 Uncertainty Frameworks, 175
7.1.2 Source and Nature of Uncertainty, 176
7.1.3 Uncertainty and the Adaptive Paradigm, 177
7.1.4 Techniques for Addressing Uncertainty, 177
7.2 Scenarios, 178
7.2.1 Steps in Creating Scenarios, 178
7.2.2 Types of Scenarios, 182
7.3 Examples and Applications, 184
7.3.1 Scenarios for Renewable Energy Planning, 184
7.3.2 Pervasive Computing Scenarios, 185
7.3.3 Scenarios for Social Change, 186
7.4 Scenarios: Extensions and Advanced Techniques, 187
7.4.1 Scenarios in Multimethodology Forecasts, 187
7.4.2 Extensions of Scenario Analysis, 189
7.5 Conclusions, 191
References, 192
8 Economic and Market Analysis 194
8.1 The Context, 194
8.1.1 Markets and Innovation, 197
8.1.2 Technology and Institutions, 199
8.2 Forecasting the Market, 203
8.2.1 The Consumer/Customer Marketplace, 204
8.2.2 Qualitative Techniques for Appraising Market Potential, 206
8.2.3 A Quantitative Approach—Adoption and Substitution: S-Curve Models, 207
8.3 Forecasting the Economic Context, 208
8.3.1 Macroeconomic Forecasting, 209
8.3.2 Input-Output Analysis, 210
8.3.3 General Equilibrium Models, 214
8.3.4 Hedonic Technometrics, 215
8.4 Forecasting in an Institutional Context, 216
8.4.1 Institutional Arrangements and the Market, 216
8.4.2 Game Theory, 218
8.4.3 Agent-Based Models, 219
8.5 Conclusion, 219
References, 220
9 Impact Assessment 223
9.1 Impact Assessment in Technology Forecasting, 223
9.2 Impacts on Technology and Impacts of Technology, 224
9.3 A Comprehensive Approach to Impact Assessment, 225
9.4 Impact Identification, 226
9.4.1 Scanning Techniques, 226
9.4.2 Tracing Techniques, 227
9.4.3 Narrowing the Impact Set and Estimating Effects, 229
9.4.4 A Final Word, 229
9.5 Impact Analysis, 230
9.5.1 Analyzing Impacts on and Impacts of the Technology, 230
9.5.2 Analyzing Technological Impacts, 232
9.5.3 Analyzing Economic Impacts, 234
9.5.4 Analyzing Environmental Impacts, 234
9.5.5 Analyzing Social Impacts, 238
9.5.6 Analyzing Institutional Impacts, 239
9.5.7 Analyzing Political Impacts, 240
9.5.8 Analyzing Legal and Regulatory Impacts, 241
9.5.9 Analyzing Behavioral, Cultural, and Values Impacts, 242
9.5.10 Analyzing Health-Related Impacts, 243
9.6 Impact Evaluation, 244
9.7 Conclusion, 245
References, 245
10 Cost-Benefit and Risk Analysis 248
10.1 Opportunity Costs and Choices, 248
10.2 Cost-Benefit Analysis, 249
10.2.1 Cost-Benefit Analysis within the Organization, 249
10.2.2 Societal Stake and the Organizational Response, 253
10.2.3 Cost-Benefit Analysis Methods, 260
10.2.4 Economic Value Added, 263
10.2.5 Earned Value Management, 264
10.2.6 The Balanced Scorecard, 265
10.3 Accounting for Risk and Uncertainty, 265
10.3.1 Accounting for Risk within Organizations, 265
10.3.2 Accounting for Risk—the Social Dimension, 269
10.4 Concluding the Focusing Phase, 273
References, 274
11 Implementing the Technology 277
11.1 Forecasting Continues, 277
11.2 Implementation Issues, 278
11.3 Strategic Planning for Technology Implementation, 278
11.4 Selecting from among Alternative Implementations of the Technology, 279
11.4.1 Measurement, 282
11.4.2 Interpretive Structural Modeling, 284
11.4.3 Analytic Hierarchy Process, 285
11.4.4 Wrap-Up, 286
11.5 Technology Roadmapping, 286
11.6 Summary and Concluding Observations, 287
References, 287
12 Managing the Present from the Future 289
12.1 The Overall Approach, 289
12.2 Selecting Methods and Techniques, 290
12.2.1 Using the TDS and the Major Families of Techniques, 290
12.2.2 The 80–20 Rule, 291
12.3 Alternative Perspectives, 291
12.4 Learning from Past Forecasts and Assessments, 293
12.5 Visions, 295
12.6 A Final Word, 295
References, 296
Appendix A Case Study on Forecasting Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells 297
A.1 Framing the Case Study, 297
A.1.1 Characterizing the Technology, 298
A.1.2 Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells, 299
A.2 Methods, 299
A.2.1 Engaging Experts and Multipath Mapping, 299
A.2.2 Developing the TDS, 300
A.2.3 Tech Mining (Chapter 5) and Science Overlay Mapping, 304
A.2.4 Trend Analyses, 310
A.2.5 Cross-charting and Social Network Analyses, 311
A.3 The Rest of the Story, 313
A.3.1 Market Forecasts, 314
A.3.2 Scenarios, 315
A.3.3 Technology Assessment, 315
A.3.4 Further Analyses and Communicating Results, 316
References, 316
Index 319
http://as.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-0470440902.html
Alan L. Porter, Scott W. Cunningham, Jerry Banks, A. Thomas Roper, Thomas W. Mason, Frederick A. Rossini
Table of Contents
Acknowledgments xv
1 Introduction 1
1.1 About This Book, 1
1.2 Technology and Society, 2
1.2.1 Social Change, 3
1.2.2 Technological Change, 4
1.3 Management and the Future, 6
1.3.1 Management and Innovation Processes, 7
1.3.2 The Role of Technology Forecasting, 9
1.3.3 The Importance of Technology Forecasting, 10
1.3.4 The Role of Social Forecasting, 12
1.4 Conclusions, 13
References, 13
2 Technology Forecasting 15
2.1 What Is Technology Forecasting?, 15
2.1.1 Models of Technology Growth and Diffusion, 17
2.1.2 Technology Forecasting in Context, 18
2.1.3 What Makes a Forecast Good?, 20
2.1.4 Common Errors in Forecasting Technology, 21
2.2 Methodological Foundations, 23
2.2.1 The Technology Delivery System, 24
2.2.2 Inquiring Systems, 28
2.3 Technology Forecasting Methods, 31
2.3.1 Overview of the Most Frequently Used Forecasting Methods, 33
2.3.2 Method Selection, 37
2.4 Conclusion, 37
References, 38
3 Managing the Forecasting Project 40
3.1 Information Needs of the Forecasting Project, 40
3.1.1 The Technology Manager’s Needs, 42
3.1.2 The Forecast Manager’s Needs, 43
3.1.3 Information about Team Members, 44
3.2 Planning the Technology Forecast, 46
3.3 Team Organization, Management, and Communications, 47
3.3.1 Organizing and Managing the Technology Forecast, 50
3.3.2 Communications, 54
3.3.3 Summary Conclusions about Project Management and Organization, 55
3.4 Success: The Right Information at the Right Time, 56
3.5 Project Scheduling, 57
3.5.1 Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT), 58
3.5.2 Gantt Chart, 60
3.5.3 Project Accountability Chart (PAC), 60
3.5.4 Project Scheduling Software, 61
3.6 Conclusions, 62
References, 62
4 Exploring 65
4.1 Establishing the Context—the TDS, 65
4.1.1 Societal and Institutional Contexts, 66
4.1.2 Technology Context, 67
4.1.3 Stakeholders, 68
4.1.4 Understanding the TDS, 69
4.1.5 An Example TDS Model, 70
4.2 Monitoring, 72
4.2.1 Why Monitor?, 74
4.2.2 Who Should Monitor?, 75
4.2.3 Monitoring Strategy, 76
4.2.4 Monitoring Focused on Management of Technology Issues, 79
4.2.5 Monitoring Focused on the Stage of the Technology Development, 81
4.3 The Stimulation of Creativity, 81
4.3.1 Five Elements of Creativity, 81
4.3.2 Group Creativity, 92
4.4 Conclusion, 95
References, 95
5 Gathering and Using Information 98
5.1 Expert Opinion, 99
5.1.1 Selecting Experts, 99
5.1.2 Selecting Expert Opinion Techniques, 100
5.2 Gathering Information on the Internet, 105
5.2.1 Science and Technology on the Internet, 106
5.2.2 Society and Culture on the Internet, 109
5.3 Structuring the Search, 113
5.4 Preparing Search Results, 116
5.5 Using Search Results, 117
5.6 Developing Science, Technology, and Social Indicators, 119
5.6.1 Science and Technology Indicators, 119
5.6.2 Social Indicators, 122
5.7 Communicating Search Results, 122
5.8 Conclusions, 123
References, 124
6 Analyzing Phase 129
6.1 Perspective on Data and Methods, 129
6.1.1 Overview and Caveats, 130
6.1.2 Internet Time Series Data and Trends, 132
6.1.3 Analytical Modeling, 133
6.2 Linear Regression and Extensions, 134
6.3 Growth Models, 138
6.3.1 The Models, 138
6.3.2 Dealing with the Data, 143
6.3.3 Regression and Growth Modeling: What Can Go Wrong?, 144
6.4 Simulation, 145
6.4.1 Quantitative Cross-Impact Analysis, 146
6.4.2 Qualitative Cross-Impact Analysis, 152
6.5 Monte Carlo Simulation, 153
6.5.1 Generating and Displaying Random Values, 153
6.5.2 Sampling Multiple Random Variables, 154
6.5.3 RFID Application in a Hospital Decision, 156
6.6 System Dynamics, 158
6.6.1 The System Dynamics Modeling Cycle, 159
6.6.2 A Technology Forecasting Example: The Cable-to-the-Curb Model, 162
6.7 Gaming, 164
6.7.1 Decision Trees, 165
6.7.2 Bayesian Estimation, 166
6.7.3 Value of Information, 167
6.7.4 Real Options Analysis, 169
6.8 Software Suggestions, 170
6.8.1 Software for Regression, 170
6.8.2 Simulation Analysis Software, 170
6.8.3 Software for Analysis of Decisions, 170
6.8.4 Real Options Super Lattice Software, 170
6.8.5 Software Sites, 171
References, 171
7 Focusing Phase: Using Scenario Analysis 174
7.1 Uncertainty, 175
7.1.1 Uncertainty Frameworks, 175
7.1.2 Source and Nature of Uncertainty, 176
7.1.3 Uncertainty and the Adaptive Paradigm, 177
7.1.4 Techniques for Addressing Uncertainty, 177
7.2 Scenarios, 178
7.2.1 Steps in Creating Scenarios, 178
7.2.2 Types of Scenarios, 182
7.3 Examples and Applications, 184
7.3.1 Scenarios for Renewable Energy Planning, 184
7.3.2 Pervasive Computing Scenarios, 185
7.3.3 Scenarios for Social Change, 186
7.4 Scenarios: Extensions and Advanced Techniques, 187
7.4.1 Scenarios in Multimethodology Forecasts, 187
7.4.2 Extensions of Scenario Analysis, 189
7.5 Conclusions, 191
References, 192
8 Economic and Market Analysis 194
8.1 The Context, 194
8.1.1 Markets and Innovation, 197
8.1.2 Technology and Institutions, 199
8.2 Forecasting the Market, 203
8.2.1 The Consumer/Customer Marketplace, 204
8.2.2 Qualitative Techniques for Appraising Market Potential, 206
8.2.3 A Quantitative Approach—Adoption and Substitution: S-Curve Models, 207
8.3 Forecasting the Economic Context, 208
8.3.1 Macroeconomic Forecasting, 209
8.3.2 Input-Output Analysis, 210
8.3.3 General Equilibrium Models, 214
8.3.4 Hedonic Technometrics, 215
8.4 Forecasting in an Institutional Context, 216
8.4.1 Institutional Arrangements and the Market, 216
8.4.2 Game Theory, 218
8.4.3 Agent-Based Models, 219
8.5 Conclusion, 219
References, 220
9 Impact Assessment 223
9.1 Impact Assessment in Technology Forecasting, 223
9.2 Impacts on Technology and Impacts of Technology, 224
9.3 A Comprehensive Approach to Impact Assessment, 225
9.4 Impact Identification, 226
9.4.1 Scanning Techniques, 226
9.4.2 Tracing Techniques, 227
9.4.3 Narrowing the Impact Set and Estimating Effects, 229
9.4.4 A Final Word, 229
9.5 Impact Analysis, 230
9.5.1 Analyzing Impacts on and Impacts of the Technology, 230
9.5.2 Analyzing Technological Impacts, 232
9.5.3 Analyzing Economic Impacts, 234
9.5.4 Analyzing Environmental Impacts, 234
9.5.5 Analyzing Social Impacts, 238
9.5.6 Analyzing Institutional Impacts, 239
9.5.7 Analyzing Political Impacts, 240
9.5.8 Analyzing Legal and Regulatory Impacts, 241
9.5.9 Analyzing Behavioral, Cultural, and Values Impacts, 242
9.5.10 Analyzing Health-Related Impacts, 243
9.6 Impact Evaluation, 244
9.7 Conclusion, 245
References, 245
10 Cost-Benefit and Risk Analysis 248
10.1 Opportunity Costs and Choices, 248
10.2 Cost-Benefit Analysis, 249
10.2.1 Cost-Benefit Analysis within the Organization, 249
10.2.2 Societal Stake and the Organizational Response, 253
10.2.3 Cost-Benefit Analysis Methods, 260
10.2.4 Economic Value Added, 263
10.2.5 Earned Value Management, 264
10.2.6 The Balanced Scorecard, 265
10.3 Accounting for Risk and Uncertainty, 265
10.3.1 Accounting for Risk within Organizations, 265
10.3.2 Accounting for Risk—the Social Dimension, 269
10.4 Concluding the Focusing Phase, 273
References, 274
11 Implementing the Technology 277
11.1 Forecasting Continues, 277
11.2 Implementation Issues, 278
11.3 Strategic Planning for Technology Implementation, 278
11.4 Selecting from among Alternative Implementations of the Technology, 279
11.4.1 Measurement, 282
11.4.2 Interpretive Structural Modeling, 284
11.4.3 Analytic Hierarchy Process, 285
11.4.4 Wrap-Up, 286
11.5 Technology Roadmapping, 286
11.6 Summary and Concluding Observations, 287
References, 287
12 Managing the Present from the Future 289
12.1 The Overall Approach, 289
12.2 Selecting Methods and Techniques, 290
12.2.1 Using the TDS and the Major Families of Techniques, 290
12.2.2 The 80–20 Rule, 291
12.3 Alternative Perspectives, 291
12.4 Learning from Past Forecasts and Assessments, 293
12.5 Visions, 295
12.6 A Final Word, 295
References, 296
Appendix A Case Study on Forecasting Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells 297
A.1 Framing the Case Study, 297
A.1.1 Characterizing the Technology, 298
A.1.2 Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells, 299
A.2 Methods, 299
A.2.1 Engaging Experts and Multipath Mapping, 299
A.2.2 Developing the TDS, 300
A.2.3 Tech Mining (Chapter 5) and Science Overlay Mapping, 304
A.2.4 Trend Analyses, 310
A.2.5 Cross-charting and Social Network Analyses, 311
A.3 The Rest of the Story, 313
A.3.1 Market Forecasts, 314
A.3.2 Scenarios, 315
A.3.3 Technology Assessment, 315
A.3.4 Further Analyses and Communicating Results, 316
References, 316
Index 319
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